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Thursday, May 29, 2008

Back to Mississippi

Things are looking good for former governor Ronnie Musgrove in his race to take Trent Lott's old seat down here. For the last couple of weeks we've seen a variety of polls; one, an internal poll for the Dems showed Ronnie up 8 points, but a little later a Kos sponsored poll showed him down, but within 4 points.

Today, a new poll out from Rasmussen has the race essentially tied, with Musgrove up by one.
Mississippi’s appointed U.S. Senator Roger Wicker (R) finds himself in a very tight election battle to win the job on his own. University of Virginia’s Larry Sabato has noted that this will be a “real political battle” which is “a rarity in a state that’s usually red as red can be.”

The first Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the race finds a pure toss-up--former Governor Ronnie Musgrove (D) attracts 47% of the vote while Wicker earns 46%.

Musgrove leads by ten points among women but trails by eight among men. The Democratic challenger leads among voters under 50 while the GOP incumbent leads among those who have passed the half-century mark. Musgrove is supported by 81% of Democrats, Wicker by 76% of Republicans, and Wicker holds a very modest 44% to 40% lead among the
state’s unaffiliated voters.
That a Democrat is even running neck and neck with Haley Barbour's handpicked successor to Lott - in Mississippi - is pretty inspiring. That the news comes on the heels of Travis Childers win a few weeks back makes it even more so. If, as we can expect, having Obama at the top of the ticket results in a historically high African-American turnout, Musgrove's advantage increases significantly.

Yes, all the usual caveats apply: Musgrove's lead is well within the margin of error, polls this far out can be misleading, and anything can happen between now and the election, but even so, that we're this close is really wonderful news.

Of course, Ronnie's going to need as much help as he can get, and Wicker is out raising him by a wide margin at this point. So, if you can and want to help us continue the Democratic reclamation of the Great State of Mississippi, head on over to Musgrove's ActBlue page and drop some coin in the bucket. Every little bit helps.

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