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Thursday, July 24, 2008

New MS Poll: Musgrove vs. Wicker Neck and Neck, and Obama Rising

A brand spanking new Research 2000 Poll is out, commissioned by Daily Kos on the state of the Mississippi Senate and Presidential races. And what's it find? Well, there's a statistical tie between Musgrove and Wicker, and Obama's numbers are ticking up (and these numbers include 15% of African-American voters as undecided). Numbers in parenthesis are from a 5/22 poll conducted by the same outfit:
Wicker (R) 45 (46)

Musgrove (D) 44 (42)

Looks like float within the MoE. This one is tight. Note, there was a methodological difference in this poll from the last -- we omitted the party ID of the candidates since the ballot will omit them. Ultimately, it seemed to make little difference.

And check out the presidential:

McCain (R) 51 (54)

Obama (D) 42 (39)

Obama is getting 19 percent of the white vote in this poll, just shy of the 20 percent DavidNYC identified as key for winning the state. The second part of that equation is to boost African American turnout in the state to 40 percent of the total vote. In this poll, African Americans represent 37 percent of the vote. The undecided African American vote -- 15 percent (!) -- will come down for Obama. Now it's a question of turning them out in historic numbers.
Full cross-tabs of the poll are available at the link above if you're interested, and y'know, while you're at it, I'd recommend y'all go ahead read the diary linked in Kos' comments as well. Things are still very much up in the air in the Magnolia state, in terms of both the Senate and Presidential races.

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