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Tuesday, September 02, 2008

The Palin Bump

I'm with Atrios on this one. This seems to be a reflection of the Palin revelations more than the convention. And like Palin bumps are wont to do, I imagine it will only continue to swell over the coming months.

Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Aug. 30 through Sept. 1, finds Barack Obama leading the race for president with his highest share of support to date. Fully half of national registered voters now favor Obama for president, while 42% back John McCain.

Prior to now, no more than 49% of registered voters supported Obama for president in Gallup Poll Daily tracking. Still, Obama's eight percentage point lead over McCain in the new poll falls one point shy of the lead he attained in late July after returning from a well-publicized trip to Europe and parts of the Middle East. At that time, Obama led by nine points, 49% to 40%.

McCain's 42% support is well below his 48% top support level, recorded in late April/early May. It is just slightly better than the 40% he received at several points in July, and the 41% favoring him just last week while the Democratic National Convention was underway. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.)

At 8%, the percentage of undecided voters is slightly lower than the 9% to 11% figures seen for most of August, and this is the lowest this figure has been since early June. This, in part, reflects movement of voters toward Obama over the course of the Democratic National Convention, a lead which has been sustained in subsequent days.

The field period for today's results includes Monday (Labor Day), when the scaled down Republican National Convention received limited media attention while most news coverage either focused on the hurricane hitting parts of the Gulf Coast or Monday's surprise announcement that the 17-year-old daughter of the soon to be Republican vice presidential candidate, Sarah Palin, is pregnant. The Republicans hope to start up a more traditional convention schedule today in St. Paul, with the goal of capturing the same kind of media and public attention the Democrats did last week in Denver.

Note that the pregnancy of her daughter is the very least of the issue. Every day that passes reveals more and more uncomfortable information about McCain's VP pick, and more importantly, about McCain's decision making abilities.

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